AUKUS Dilemma! South Korea's Diplomatic Survival Strategy Amidst the US-China Hegemonic War

The background of the establishment of AUKUS

In September 2021, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia formed a security cooperation known as AUKUS. This is not simply a military alliance, but a strategy aimed at reshaping the order in the Indo-Pacific region with the United States at the center. It reflects America's intention to counter China through the provision of nuclear-powered submarines (Pillar 1) and cooperation in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities (Pillar 2). Through this, the United States seeks to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and reduce military threats.

The intent of the AUKUS in the United States

AUKUS appears to be a collaboration on the surface, but in reality, it is a mechanism to maintain America's maritime hegemony and technological superiority. The provision of nuclear submarines is a military strategy to block China's maritime expansion, while advanced technology cooperation is a strategy to establish a U.S.-centric technological alliance aimed at controlling China's technological rise. There is a high possibility that technology powerhouses such as Japan, South Korea, and Canada will participate in Pillar 2. South Korea is also mentioned as a strong potential partner, but this could imply that it must operate within the standards and control system set by the United States rather than merely engaging in simple technological exchange.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Participating in Pillar 2

By participating in Pillar 2, South Korea can engage in advanced technology cooperation such as AI and cyber warfare. This would provide opportunities to enhance technological capabilities, develop the defense industry, and conduct joint research and development. However, it may also result in constraints related to technological dependency and export controls. The United States imposes strict technology control regulations, such as ITAR and EAR, which limit the transfer and use of its technology. In the AUKUS nuclear submarine project, Australia faced challenges due to U.S. controls. If South Korea becomes integrated into the U.S. control system, it could actually restrict our technology's utilization, export, and independent development.

Diplomatic Dynamics with China

The bigger problem is the diplomatic and economic aftershocks. China is strongly opposing AUKUS, criticizing it as an 'Asian NATO.' If South Korea joins AUKUS, China may interpret this as a signal of strengthened military alliance with the U.S. and could retaliate economically. During the THAAD deployment, China imposed economic sanctions on South Korea, leading to significant losses for South Korean companies. Pillar 2 represents a more direct military technology collaboration than THAAD, which could have even greater repercussions. Furthermore, military technology bloc formations like AUKUS could intensify the arms race in the Northeast Asian region and ultimately destabilize South Korea's security.

Internal Criticism of the United States and the Choice of Korea

There is a critical perspective on AUKUS even within the United States. Former President Trump has stated that AUKUS is an unfair alliance that only harms the U.S. and is calling for a reevaluation. In a situation where it is uncertain when the U.S. might change its stance, South Korea's participation in AUKUS may be a risky decision. Overall, there is a growing recognition that it is time to maintain strategic autonomy.

South Korea's Foreign Policy Strategy and Alternatives

President Lee Jae-myung has not yet clarified his position on AUKUS. This may be a judgment that considers maintaining strategic ambiguity while balancing diplomacy with the United States, China, and Japan. In fact, maintaining a cautious attitude could help protect South Korea's strategic autonomy. South Korea already possesses global competitiveness in key technological areas such as semiconductors, cybersecurity, and AI. Based on this capability, we must safeguard our own technological security. Rather than unconditionally participating in a U.S.-led alliance, we should pursue a multifaceted strategy based on conditional cooperation according to our own standards and easing technology controls.

The necessity and strategy of AUKUS participation

AUKUS provides South Korea with opportunities for technological cooperation, but it also carries the risk of getting caught up in U.S. strategies and worsening relations with China. South Korea needs to carefully consider the criteria and strategies to safeguard our security and technology. It is time for us to design and lead our own strategy rather than just integrating into the U.S. order. Maintaining balance and autonomy with internal principles, without being swayed by external strategies, should be at the heart of South Korea's diplomatic security strategy.