Israel-Iran War and the Turmoil of Global Order: Strategic Conflicts of the United States, China, and Russia
Introduction: A Local Conflict or a Touchstone of Global Strategy
In June 2025, Israel's surprise airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities marked a significant turning point that cannot simply be dismissed as a conflict within the Middle East. While it may superficially appear to be a military clash between two nations, this incident is also a critical juncture where the strategic interests and calculations of major powers that constitute the global order—namely the United States, China, and Russia—intersect directly. These three nations employ a sophisticated balancing strategy aimed at maximizing their national interests while avoiding full-scale war and capturing vulnerabilities in their adversaries. This article seeks to interpret the Israel-Iran conflict not merely as an isolated event, but as a compressed battleground where the strategies of great powers collide in the process of restructuring the international order in the 21st century.
USA: A Strategic Balancing Act Between Maintaining Alliances and Avoiding Escalation
The United States has functioned as a key sponsor of Israel for a long time. However, its response to the current situation is quite different from the past. While exercising restraint in military intervention, the U.S. is adopting a strategy of "limited engagement" to maintain its alliance with Israel through information sharing and diplomatic support. This approach is deeply influenced by the domestic political situation ahead of the 2025 U.S. presidential election. After the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the public's fatigue with war remains deeply rooted, and minimizing Middle Eastern involvement has become a bipartisan consensus. Therefore, the Biden administration is delicately balancing its diplomacy to avoid escalation while not completely losing America's credibility in the Middle East. Specifically, this includes managing the risk of escalation through the rear deployment of some troops stationed in the region, strengthening naval forces, and enhancing diplomatic efforts at the United Nations Security Council, while intentionally avoiding direct confrontation with Iran. This is based on the strategic principle of "deterrence without provocation."
China: Aiming for Energy Stability While Expanding Anti-Western Block
China has been investing in strategic cooperation with Iran for a long time. The 25-year long-term economic cooperation agreement signed in 2021 aimed to secure energy security and expand the Belt and Road Initiative. In the wake of the recent conflict, China appears to emphasize neutrality and peace on the surface, but behind the scenes, it is seizing opportunities to expand its geopolitical influence. China's strategy embodies a dual structure that advocates "non-intervention" while simultaneously engaging in substantial involvement. Attempts to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran, participation in Syria's reconstruction, and the expansion of oil trade using the yuan are all movements that aim to create fractures in the Western order and seek a China-centered international system. The situation where Iran is disconnected from the West presents valuable opportunities for China. Isolated by Western sanctions, Iran has no choice but to depend on China for resources, which serves as a lever for China to strengthen its energy and monetary hegemony. Consequently, China sees this situation as a stepping stone for expanding the anti-Western bloc and reshaping the international order.
Russia: Trying to Regain Influence Amidst Chaos
Russia has been isolated in the international community due to the Syrian Civil War and the Ukraine War. However, the expanding instability in the Middle East is actually providing strategic opportunities for Russia. It has already maintained a close relationship with Iran in military technology cooperation, drone technology sharing, and arms trading, and the cooperation between the two countries has deepened further due to the current war. Russia's goal is not merely to support Iran. As the conflicts intensify, the United States and Europe’s attention becomes divided, which creates a strategic breathing space on the Ukrainian front. At the same time, if the instability of Middle Eastern oil increases, Europe's energy dependence on Russia may also be re-emphasized, potentially offering new avenues for Russia's energy diplomacy. Additionally, Russia is positioning itself as a 'mediator' in multilateral diplomatic arenas such as the United Nations and is simultaneously waging information warfare attacking the international legitimacy of the United States. A multi-layered strategy to restore its relative influence in what is called a 'disorderly world' is currently in operation.
Conclusion: The war in the Middle East is a condensed version of global strategy.
The Israel-Iran conflict is not merely a military clash but can be described as a compressed battlefield intertwined with the reorganization of the international order and the clash of great power strategies. The United States seeks to minimize military intervention while fostering alliance maintenance, China is expanding its anti-Western axis and solidifying energy hegemony, and Russia is aiming for strategic gaps amid the chaos. This conflict transcends armed confrontation, evolving into a complex strategic game involving diplomacy, economics, currency, and information warfare. The Middle East is no longer just a battleground for oil it has become a testing ground for 21st-century global politics and a litmus test for balance. The challenge faced by the international community is to create a new diplomatic framework that can converge this conflict into a structure of long-term stability. It is not enough to merely suppress short-term clashes a structural solution that achieves balance amidst instability is precisely where the strategic imagination of our time is needed.
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