KOSPI Rebreaking 3,000: Its Meaning and Short-term Strategy

The Meaning of the Current Position

In June 2025, the KOSPI once again broke through the symbolic psychological benchmark of 3,000 points. This holds significance beyond a mere number and acts as an important signal for all participants in the Korean stock market. Since 2021, there have been repeated instances of resistance and failure at this level, which has been perceived as a hurdle for individual investors' sentiment and a reallocation benchmark for institutional and foreign investors. In this article, we aim to summarize the short-term market outlook based on recent weekly charts, Fibonacci retracement ratios, analysis of technical indicators, and past similar patterns. Particularly focusing on the question, "Will it be different this time?", we will take a deeper look at the market trends.

Summary of Chart Technical Analysis

(1) Fibonacci Retracement Analysis KOSPI has reached around 3,080pt, which is the 78.6% retracement level of the range from the 2022 low (approximately 2,160pt) to the 2021 high (approximately 3,300pt). This level is a point where strong resistance often forms technically, and it may increase short-term upward pressure. Key Fibonacci Levels Summary: - 61.8% (approximately 2,900-2,920pt): Key support level - 78.6% (approximately 3,080pt): Current position, short-term overheating boundary - 100% (3,300pt): Historical high, medium-term resistance (2) Indicator Interpretation Stoch RSI is in the overbought zone (above 90) based on weekly analysis, and in similar past situations, corrections accompanied this condition. According to Bollinger Bands, it is currently above the upper band, indicating short-term overheating signals. Typically, in this zone, prices tend to adjust towards the midpoint. (3) Comparison with Past Similar Patterns The chart shows that the current flow is resembling past surges. The structure where upward momentum slows after breaking a certain high has previously acted as a precursor to medium-term corrections, and similar risk factors are present now.

Key Scenario Outlook

(1) Positive Scenario If the KOSPI forms support in the 2,920~2,950pt range, it can be interpreted as an energy accumulation process for a rebound after a short-term adjustment. This opens up the possibility of attempting to break through 3,300pt again, and if this range is breached, the next targets are 3,380~3,500pt based on Fibonacci extension ratios of 1.272~1.618. (2) Negative Scenario On the other hand, if the support at 2,920pt fails, the market could experience a downward adjustment to 2,800pt or 2,616pt. In particular, 2,616pt is a critical point for the medium-term upward trend, and if breached, the possibility of a transition to a downward market cannot be ruled out. (3) Key Technical Level Summary Level Meaning 3,300 Past high, very strong resistance line 2,920 Short-term key support level, whether it rebounds or breaks is crucial 2,800 Benchmark for determining maintenance of upward trend 2,616 Benchmark for returning to medium-term downward trend

Strategy and Insights

The current KOSPI has reached a psychological turning point, not just a simple number. Breaking through the 3,000-point mark is certainly a hopeful signal for investors, but it is also a time that requires a cool-headed judgment. Accumulated technical fatigue, entry into overbought territory, and signals of slowing growth suggest the possibility of short-term corrections in the future. Investors must ask themselves the following questions: Will the 2,920pt support hold? Is this a repetition of the past, or a beginning of a new trend? The market repeats itself, but it does not move in exactly the same way every time. The past is a mirror reflecting the future, but one cannot predict the future through blind copying and pasting. Charts do not hide short-term truths. Real opportunities are always open to those who insightfully reflect on the past and prepare for the future.