When is President Lee Jae-myung's first policy address expected? Predictions on timing and political implications

Introduction: Starting Point of a New National Policy

On June 3, 2025, President Lee Jae-myung officially assumed office as the 22nd President. His presidency is not merely a power transfer but a significant turning point that will determine the future of South Korea over the next five years amidst complex crises. In particular, attention from both the political realm and the public is focused on when his first policy speech will take place and what messages it will convey. This policy speech is a symbolic yet practical political act that demonstrates the president's direction for governance and the level of cooperation with the National Assembly.

Concept and Legal Significance of the State of the Union Address

The state of the union address is a speech in which the president explains the main contents and policy directions of the budget proposal or supplementary budget proposal submitted to the National Assembly in accordance with Article 54 of the Constitution and Article 84 of the National Assembly Act, while requesting the cooperation of the National Assembly. However, this procedure goes beyond a simple explanation of the budget. The state of the union address functions as a political scene that publicly expresses the president's governance philosophy and reveals the willingness for communication and cooperation with the National Assembly. Therefore, the timing, format, and content of the address are all subject to strategic considerations.

Comparative analysis through past cases

Looking at the timing of the first state of the nation addresses of the previous two presidents, we can confirm that different political judgments were reflected. President Moon Jae-in delivered his first state of the nation address on November 1, about six months after taking office on May 10, 2017, during the regular session of the National Assembly. In this address, he emphasized the government policy of cooperation, welfare expansion, and job creation in the public sector. The ruling party welcomed this, but the opposition party criticized it by pointing out the “lack of cooperation” based on issues such as the disruption of confirmation hearings. On the other hand, President Yoon Suk-yeol delivered his first state of the nation address just six days after taking office on May 10, 2022, focusing on the supplementary budget plan. The keywords centered around people's livelihoods and bipartisan cooperation, which the ruling party supported however, the opposition party, then represented by the Democratic Party, expressed concerns by stating, “We agree with the need for public sympathy, but there are insufficient detailed measures.” These two cases clearly show how the responses from the National Assembly differ based on the timing and content.

Predicting the timing of President Lee Jae-myung's State of the Union address

The timing of President Lee Jae-myung's first policy address can be divided into two main scenarios. The first is the traditional timing centered around the regular National Assembly session, and the second is an early address based on policy needs such as supplementary budget formation. If the focus is on the regular National Assembly, the policy address is likely to take place between early to mid-November 2025. This timing coincides with when the budget proposal for the following year is submitted to the National Assembly, making it an appropriate time for the president to systematically convey the philosophy and direction of annual governance. Additionally, this timing is politically advantageous as it allows the president to deliver the message in a more stable environment after addressing any potential personnel controversies or initial policy reactions that may arise shortly after taking office. An early policy address could occur between late June and mid-August 2025. This would be the case if an additional budget is necessary due to factors such as economic recession, youth job creation, and climate disaster response. In this scenario, the president could strategically communicate to secure driving momentum for the early stage of governance and establish cooperative relations with the National Assembly at an early stage.

Expected Response from the National Assembly

The reactions of both the ruling and opposition parties are likely to diverge based on the timing and message of the president's speech. The ruling Democratic Party of Korea is expected to create a welcoming atmosphere for the president's first state of the nation address. In particular, there is a strong possibility of active cooperation on policy directions shared between the party and the government, such as welfare, balanced regional development, and income redistribution. On the other hand, the opposition People Power Party and other conservative opposition groups may focus on scrutinizing procedural legitimacy and the justification for funding. Additionally, if the speech is perceived as an attempt to evade judicial risks or shift the political landscape, political backlash could intensify. In this case, the opposition may seek to check the president's governance momentum through conditional cooperation or attempts at budget cuts.

Policy Implications

The first policy address of President Lee Jae-myung will serve as a test for his cooperative governance strategy. For the speech to act as a substantial turning point that affects national stability and legislative achievements, a strategic choice of timing is essential. If an early speech is chosen, clear policy foundations and plans for funding must be presented, whereas if a regular parliamentary approach is taken, it will be important to strengthen messages emphasizing long-term structural reform directions and social integration. Particularly, proactive communication aimed at persuading the opposition is crucial, and rather than showcasing negotiating power, early establishment of a practical cooperation framework within the National Assembly will be key to future governance.

Conclusion: The timing of the speech is the direction of national policy.

In conclusion, President Lee Jae-myung's first policy address is most likely to be held around November 2025, aligning with the traditional regular National Assembly schedule. However, depending on the urgency of national tasks and political strategic needs, there is ample possibility for it to be conducted earlier, between late June and mid-August. In particular, whether to prepare supplementary budgets will be a decisive factor that could bring the speech forward. The government must take this first policy address as an opportunity to lay the foundation for national governance, not merely a procedural report to the National Assembly. To achieve this, a delicate balance must be struck among fiscal logic, political persuasion, and policy messages. Thorough preparation is necessary to ensure that this speech serves as a starting point that instills trust in the public and demonstrates the potential for collaboration with the National Assembly. Ultimately, it is hoped that this speech will become a persuasive first sentence that opens the future of the Republic of Korea.