When will the first special pardon of the Yoon Suk-yeol government take place? An overview of the timing and expected main pardon candidates.

Introduction

On June 3, 2025, with the official inauguration of President Lee Jae-myung as the 22nd president, the presidential pardon authority based on Article 79 of the Constitution also came into effect. This authority can be exercised following the recommendation of the Ministry of Justice and deliberation by the State Council, functioning not just as a simple reduction of penalties but as a symbolic act that reflects political integration and governance philosophy. This report comprehensively analyzes the timing and subjects of the special pardons that can be implemented most quickly during the early period of the Lee Jae-myung administration, considering precedents from past governments, the current political and social situation, and the status of related inmates.

Comparison of the timing and nature of the first pardons of past governments

The first pardons by past presidents typically occurred within 39 months of their administrations beginning and were often aligned with the Lunar New Year or Liberation Day. Each government's pardons were structured to reflect the early governance philosophy. The Moon Jae-in administration implemented a limited pardon focused on livelihood-related offenders, labor-related individuals, and youth offenders on December 30, 2017, about seven months after taking office, while completely excluding politicians. The Park Geun-hye administration granted pardons around the 2014 Lunar New Year, approximately 11 months into her presidency, focusing on small business owners and livelihood criminals. The Lee Myung-bak administration executed its first pardon unusually quickly, about 100 days after taking office, on May 28, 2008. This pardon mainly centered on large-scale administrative cancellations, including those who had their driver's licenses revoked, while excluding politicians, high-ranking officials, and business leaders. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration carried out its first pardon on August 15, 2022, during Liberation Day, maintaining a neutral stance by excluding former President Lee Myung-bak and politicians but including some business figures. These cases illustrate that early pardons can serve as political signals, and the timing and selection of recipients have dual meanings, reflecting both the identity of the regime and public sentiment.

Possibility of pardons under the Lee Jae-myung administration

As President Lee Jae-myung is set to assume office on June 3, 2025, the first pardon is likely to be possible around the following times: August 15, 2025, on Liberation Day, approximately 70 days after the start of the administration. Based on past cases, this is a realistic timeframe for the first regular pardon. Considering the symbolic significance of Liberation Day and its message of political and social integration, it is a strong option. The Lunar New Year in 2026 (January-February) presents a later timeframe where public opinion gathering and political coordination become feasible. If sensitive political figures such as former Minister Cho Kuk are included, it could serve as a timing that minimizes social backlash. An early, non-regular pardon (for example, around 100 days after inauguration, mid-September) is also possible, akin to the case of the Lee Myung-bak administration. However, considering the preparation procedures for the pardon, public acceptance, and political burden, the likelihood is low.

Expected Target Group Analysis

(1) Former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, Charges: Two years of imprisonment confirmed for involvement in children's entrance exam fraud (incarcerated in March 2024). Background: The political nature of the prosecutor's investigation has been consistently discussed since the latter half of the Moon Jae-in administration, and this trend continued during Lee Jae-myung's candidacy. Recently, the necessity for political rehabilitation has become more prominent with the founding of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and its entrance into the National Assembly. Possibility of pardon: Very high. A certain amount of time has passed since the sentence was confirmed, and he serves as a symbolic figure in highlighting the message of national unity and prosecutorial reform. However, backlash from centrist and conservative factions is a variable to consider. (2) Former Deputy Director of the Democratic Research Institute Kim Yong, Charges: Sentenced to five years in prison for accepting political funds related to the "Daejang-dong incident," currently incarcerated. Background: He has a strong political connection as one of President Lee Jae-myung's key aides. Possibility of pardon: Depends on the progress of the trial, and if the sentence is confirmed, he may be eligible for rehabilitation or sentence reduction. (3) Former Chief of the Office of Political Affairs Jeong Jin-sang, Charges: Indicted on charges related to the Daejang-dong incident and currently undergoing trial. Possibility of pardon: Not immediately eligible for pardon as the sentence has not been confirmed, but may be considered depending on future judicial decisions. (4) Other local politicians and aides involved, Background: Individuals who were investigated during the tenure as governor of Gyeonggi Province or during the presidential election process, with some being either not prosecuted or currently undergoing trial. Possibility of pardon: There may be a possibility of rehabilitation or sentence reduction after the sentence is confirmed, but variations by case are expected to be significant.

A criteria for amnesty, public opinion, and a unified message

President Lee Jae-myung has stated, 'While pardons can be a means of unification, it is not right to abuse them without criteria.' He has specifically declared a principle of no pardons for crimes that threaten constitutional order, such as insurrection and corruption, effectively blocking the possibility of pardons for former presidents or those involved in serious economic crimes. The criteria for pardons are likely to be established around the following principles: Priority on livelihood: Reduction of sentences or cancellation of administrative punishments for livelihood offenders, drunk drivers, and small business owners. Inclusion of figures symbolic of prosecutorial reform: Restoration of individuals perceived as political victims, like former Minister Cho Kuk. Coordination of political unification messaging: Potential expansion of scope when building an image of 'inclusive progress' rather than 'hardline progress.' Avoidance of confrontation with conservative opposition: Those expected to face strong backlash may be postponed or excluded.

Conclusion

The first special pardon of the Lee Jae-myung administration is likely to be set for as early as Liberation Day in 2025, and there will be continued careful adjustments considering various political and social variables until the Lunar New Year. The candidates for the pardon are expected to include not only livelihood-related minor offenders but also politically symbolic figures such as former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, in order to convey a dual message of restoring public livelihood and political integration. A pardon in the early stages of a government is not merely a legal act but a strong political signal that reveals the governance philosophy. Therefore, the Lee Jae-myung administration will likely seek to stitch the first piece of social integration through a ‘politically strategic pardon’ that takes into account public opinion, political acceptability, and governance stability.