Elon Musk's founding, 80,000 Bitcoin moved - is this a preemptive move to prevent the U.S. federal government's takeover of Satoshi's assets?

Three incidents, one flow?

In early July 2025, three events simultaneously shook the United States and the cryptocurrency market. The first was the announcement that Elon Musk had founded a political party called the "America Party." The second was the fact that 80,000 bitcoins from the Satoshi era, which had not moved for about 14 years, were transferred all at once. The third was the news that the California State Legislature passed a bill classifying cryptocurrency wallets that had not been active for more than three years as unclaimed assets recoverable by the state. These three events appear to have independent contexts and backgrounds, but they are very close in timing and all center around the topic of digital assets, particularly Bitcoin. Whether these are mere coincidences or part of a broader trend remains to be seen, but it is clear that they intersect within the larger framework of cryptocurrency, politics, and state power.

National Power and Cryptocurrencies: Strategic Reserves and Institutionalization

In March 2025, former President Donald Trump signed an executive order regarding the 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.' This indicates that the U.S. government considers Bitcoin seized or secured not merely as confiscated assets, but as strategic national holdings to be managed and utilized in the long term. According to some media reports, the federal government is already said to hold approximately 200,000 BTC. In June of the same year, California passed a bill classifying cryptocurrency wallets that have been inactive for more than three years as unclaimed assets, allowing for their conversion into public assets. These assets will be managed in such a way that the state government does not sell or utilize them, but instead keeps them in custodianship, with the potential for future owners to have them returned upon verification of their identity. However, some in the cryptocurrency community expressed concerns that this bill might violate the core principle of cryptocurrency ownership, 'Not your keys, not your crypto.' These movements can be interpreted as efforts by the U.S. government to institutionalize cryptocurrencies, particularly long-dormant assets, rather than merely neglecting or regulating them under specific conditions.

The Movement of Bitcoin in the Satoshi Era - Simple Security Measure or Strategic Response

On July 4, 2025, 80,000 bitcoins that had not been moved since 2011 were transferred to a new wallet address. These bitcoins were mined or acquired during the so-called 'Satoshi era,' and the fact that they moved in exactly 10,000 BTC increments from eight different wallets, as well as the fact that they were transferred to a new SegWit address, indicates a sophisticated and streamlined workflow. Various analytics firms, including the on-chain analysis platform Arkham, have analyzed this move as likely being part of a wallet structure improvement or a security reassessment rather than for selling purposes. The CTO of Ledger mentioned that there had been test transactions involving Bitcoin Cash (BCH) before this transfer, suggesting it could be a procedure to validate the wallet keys. However, the timing of the transfer coinciding with the passage of a bill in California and Musk's announcement of forming a party has led some in the community to speculate that these bitcoins were preemptively moved in response to the possibility of government regulation and seizure. Of course, there is no clear evidence or basis publicly supporting this interpretation, and the actual ownership of the related addresses has also not been confirmed.

Elon Musk's Political Involvement — A Simple Reform or a Signal of a New Order

On July 5, 2025, Elon Musk officially announced the founding of the "America Party" through X (formerly Twitter). He characterized the two-party system as a "one-party monopoly" and strongly criticized both parties for expanding government debt, creating "debt slavery" for the American people. The America Party presented various directions, including fiscal conservatism, tech innovation-centered policies, defense automation, minimal regulation, and encouragement of childbirth. Musk also claimed through a survey that "80% of moderate Americans are not politically represented." This stance can be interpreted as a strategy to attract the moderate vote, but there are also interpretations suggesting it carries symbolism beyond just a simple political reform movement. Musk already possesses a comprehensive integration of technology and communication infrastructure through Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, and X. Building a political organization on this foundation could signal that he aims to broaden his influence across society. It is still unclear whether the founding of a political party has purposes beyond the realization of specific policies, but the timing and context are noteworthy.

Hypothesis on Connected Flow - The Political Landscape Surrounding Cryptographic Assets

Musk's founding of a party, the movement of 80,000 bitcoins, and the U.S. government's dormant asset recovery policy are seemingly separate events. However, they occurred almost simultaneously, and there are views that question their interrelation, especially as they all pertain to digital assets including bitcoin. Some suggest that Musk is either a significant holder of bitcoins or has close ties with early investor networks, potentially holding substantial influence related to the recently moved bitcoins. Additionally, there is an interpretation that Musk's political party formation is not merely a challenge to the two-party system but aims to secure a political foundation in response to the U.S. government’s efforts to institutionalize digital assets. This remains speculative, as there is currently no official stance from Musk himself or related institutions supporting these claims. Nonetheless, this trend indicates that digital assets are emerging as significant variables of political power. It is particularly noted that cryptocurrencies with a fixed supply base, like bitcoin, are becoming subjects of national policies, asset strategies, and regulations.

Imagining a New Sovereignty Model — A Network-based Political Experiment

The political model that Musk aims to realize through the establishment of a party may have a different direction than the traditional nation-state centered on ethnicity and territory. For example, considering the potential to provide internet globally through Starlink, control public opinion and information distribution via X, and establish an economic ecosystem utilizing blockchain and cryptocurrencies, he may be exploring the possibility of a 'network-based community' differing from existing state models. This is still a conceptual estimation, and it is unclear whether Musk is actually attempting such a political experiment. However, given his technological infrastructure, capital, and influence, the possibility of laying the foundation for a digitally-based political community in a new realm outside the existing political sphere cannot be dismissed.

Epilogue - Is it a conspiracy theory or a prelude to change?

Musk's founding, the major movement of Bitcoin, and the U.S. government's regulation of dormant wallets are each verifiable realities. Interpreting these as part of a single flow requires cautious approach unless accompanied by clear evidence or factual relationships. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that cryptocurrencies are entering a structure intertwined with national finances, individual sovereignty, and political order, not merely as investment targets. In the future, who controls Bitcoin, how the state institutionalizes digital assets, and what political means individuals employ to protect their assets could be important issues that determine not only the future of cryptocurrencies but also the contours of a new political-economic order. All of these events may appear as a conspiracy or may be read as a forewarned future. What is important is what choices and responses are made in the space between. The world Musk is creating has not yet officially emerged, but the signs seem to have already begun.