The Diplomatic Stage of the Lee Jae-myung Government in Turmoil - North American Dialogue in 2025 and the Strategic Landscape of Northeast Asia

The door to reopened North American dialogue

In the summer of 2025, the global diplomatic stage is entering a new phase. In particular, the possibility of a North American summit is resurfacing, heightening international interest surrounding the Korean Peninsula. Following Donald Trump's announcement of his candidacy for re-election, he has been emphasizing his image as a mediator of global conflicts and showing movements to restore past North American dialogues. Some suggest that the upcoming APEC summit in San Francisco in October could serve as an opportunity for a North American meeting at Panmunjom. However, behind this optimism lies deep-rooted skepticism. Since the 2018 Singapore summit and the breakdown in Hanoi in 2019, North Korea has developed a profound distrust towards the U.S. unilateral stance. Although Trump utilized the diplomatic achievements gained from the meetings for domestic political purposes, there were no tangible rewards returned to North Korea. Now, North Korea is unlikely to make preemptive concessions as in the past, and any diplomatic transactions are likely to be discussed only under the principle of "cash first."

Motives and Limitations of Trump's Foreign Policy

Trump's push to revive the North America summit is a strategy underpinned by political calculations rather than a simple diplomatic comeback. He presents this as though he is resolving conflicts in various regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Ukraine, aiming to portray himself as the sole leader driving world peace. However, in reality, most of the issues have not been resolved they have merely been made to 'appear' resolved. This diplomatic performance aligns with Trump's unique political marketing strategy. He maximizes showmanship at the crossroads of peace and war, and ultimately seems to be considering winning a Nobel Peace Prize and amending the constitution for a third presidential term. There are many skeptical views within the U.S. about this, but he still maintains a strong leader image among his supporters. The problem lies in the fact that this strategy is closer to a 'domestic political event' than to 'actual diplomatic progress.' Experts like Victor Cha even mention the possibility of a pre-APEC meeting at Panmunjom to gain Trump's favor, advocating for the resumption of the North America summit. However, this could be interpreted more as a favor-seeking remark rather than a substantive analysis. Even if Trump genuinely wants diplomatic achievements with North Korea, whether North Korea will respond to him remains a separate issue.

North Korea's Strategic Shift and Closer Ties with Russia

North Korea, as of 2025, is in a strategically different position compared to the past. Above all, the enhancement of cooperation with Russia is prominent. According to announcements from the South Korean National Intelligence Service and the Russian side, North Korea plans to send 6,000 personnel from its engineering and construction corps to Russia between July and August, which is interpreted not merely as a personnel exchange but as a signal of comprehensive cooperation between the two countries. In addition to food trade such as pork and flour, there are also expansions in cooperation in the areas of tourism, culture, and education. This close relationship between North Korea and Russia serves as a breakthrough for North Korea in terms of 'sanctions mitigation.' Unlike China, which has strictly enforced UN Security Council sanctions, Russia is engaging in exchanges with North Korea without regard for the international community's opinions. Consequently, North Korea no longer desperately demands sanctions relief as it did in the past. With survival made possible through Russia and the alleviation of economic pressures, North Korea has gained more flexibility in diplomatic negotiations. On the other hand, its relationship with China appears to be somewhat cooled. China has expressed concern over North Korea's close ties with Russia and has voiced dissatisfaction with the strengthening of military cooperation. This is interpreted as a sense of crisis from China’s perspective, fearing a potential disruption of the strategic balance in Northeast Asia. As a result, North Korea is shifting its diplomatic weight from China to Russia, forming a new negotiation framework.

Reorganization of the Northeast Asian Situation - Strategies of Japan and Korea

Meanwhile, in Japan, the North Korea policy has been developing in a direction different from the previous far-right tendencies since the inception of the Ishiba administration. Ishiba has made normalization of diplomatic relations with North Korea and the establishment of a liaison office a campaign promise, actively seeking dialogue with North Korea. Unlike Abe's hardline approach towards North Korea, Ishiba has adopted a pragmatic stance that includes resolving the abduction issue, signaling an important shift in Japan's diplomatic direction. Japan's actions are becoming more complicated amid trade conflicts with the U.S., including soaring rice prices and automobile tariffs. In Japan, the depreciation of the yen, increased rice consumption, and stockpiling by middle distributors have caused rice prices to skyrocket, putting pressure on domestic politics. Former Prime Minister Koizumi's son has stepped in as a minister to release government rice reserves in an attempt to placate public sentiment however, if the trade negotiations with the U.S. fail, it could negatively impact support for the Ishiba administration. South Korea is establishing a new diplomatic position amid this complex Northeast Asian situation. In particular, President Lee Jae-myung's declaration of non-participation in NATO has sent ripples through neighboring countries such as Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, leading to a recovery of diplomatic leadership characterized by the notion that "if Korea moves first, other countries will follow." South Korea, which had a minimal diplomatic presence during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, is re-emerging as a central nation, and a shift towards a strategy centered on pragmatic diplomacy instead of multilateral diplomacy is being observed.

The new status and options of Korean diplomacy

In the midst of these diplomatic landscape changes, South Korea is at a strategic crossroads. If North America dialogue resumes, there is an opportunity to recover inter-Korean relations and economic cooperation, but at the same time, there is the burden of addressing the sensitive issue of 'recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power.' If the United States considers North Korea to be effectively a nuclear power and contemplates a shift towards nuclear disarmament negotiations, South Korea needs a complex strategy that maintains 'denuclearization' while also securing practical benefits. Experts acknowledge that North Korea's denuclearization is unlikely to be achieved in the short term, but they suggest that starting from 'nuclear freeze' and discussing disarmament in the medium to long term is a realistic alternative. In this process, South Korea can act as a diplomatic mediator under cooperation with the United States, taking into account North Korea's position, which prioritizes regime security. Additionally, the idea of Northeast Asian economic cooperation through the re-establishment of relationships with North Korea, China, and Japan is gaining renewed attention. The re-promotion of the Korea-China-Japan Free Trade Agreement, strategies to engage China, and conditional cooperation possibilities with Japan may all serve as opportunities for new diplomatic initiatives. These movements signal that South Korea is transforming from a mere security-dependent state to an independent actor with diplomatic leadership.

Is it a crisis or an opportunity

The 2025 Northeast Asian situation is at the boundary of crisis and opportunity. The possibility of resuming North American summits, the expansion of North Korea-Russia cooperation, the continued U.S.-China hegemonic competition, and changes in Japan's diplomatic direction all pose challenges and opportunities for South Korea. Among these, the most important variable is North Korea's choice. If North Korea can gain confidence in regime security, it may consider limited liberalization or returning to the international community. Trump's diplomacy rejects traditional diplomatic norms and focuses on pragmatism and image, termed 'transactional diplomacy.' This presents a duality where uncertainty and opportunity coexist. If South Korea actively utilizes this Trump-style diplomacy, it can become a central state in improving inter-Korean relations, establishing a Northeast Asian peace structure, and economic cooperation initiatives. Ultimately, 2025 will once again test South Korean diplomacy. Change can bring about crises, but it also opens doors of opportunity. Only those who are prepared can pass through that door when it opens. Now is the time for prepared diplomacy.